Will the global streaming and TV market revenues reach $700 billion by 2023?

The global TV and streaming market is estimated to be worth a whopping $700 billion globally by 2023, with $164 billion dedicated to investment in programming. This data was presented by Omdia research analyst Tim Westcott during a Mipcom event last Wednesday.

According to Westcott, the $700 billion figure is the combined revenue from advertising, subscription, and public revenue. This indicates a staggering 77% increase from the total revenue of $394 billion recorded in 2010.

Westcott revealed that Omdia’s research on the global programming market, which includes spending estimates in 119 countries by broadcasters, channels, and platforms, will soon be published.

From the projected $700 billion global revenue, online subscriptions will account for 47% of the total, compared to 45% in 2010. Advertising revenue will make up 48%, up from 45% in 2010. Meanwhile, public revenues are expected to decline from 10% to 5%.

In terms of geographical distribution, America will represent 43% of the market, with Asia and Oceania accounting for 25%, and Western Europe making up 18%.

Omdia’s data shows that in the U.S., programming investments have only decreased by 1% from 2022. Westcott mentioned that overall growth is now fairly stable and expects a 1% increase in worldwide spending from the previous year. He also singled out streamers like Netflix for being the major driver of growth and programming spend in recent years, although Omdia predicts subscription numbers will plateau in the upcoming year.

However, there have been cutbacks in the industry. Studios and other players have been under pressure to improve profitability by reducing programming spend. Disney and WarnerBros. Discovery are among the companies cutting costs, including programming, while online advertising shows growth, unlike traditional linear TV advertising.

Another challenge faced by the industry is the decrease in the number of scripted and unscripted commissions at U.S. networks. So far in the 2023/24 season, only 43 shows have launched, compared to 179 in 2019. Although Westcott mentioned that the number will increase with new shows launching later in the season, he emphasized that the strikes have disrupted the new season’s schedule.

Linear viewing represents only 45% of total viewing in the U.S. and 48% in the U.K. In contrast, some European countries like Italy and Spain still have a high proportion of linear TV viewing, accounting for 80% and 73% respectively.

Despite the changes, U.S. studios continue to invest more in legacy linear channels than online programming. The top five TV production and distribution groups are still led by U.S. studios, with NBCUniversal surpassing Walt Disney to claim the top spot in terms of revenues for the 2021/22 period. However, Banijay was the only European group to make it into the top ten.

As for programming investment, there is still money being spent on commissioning, but big TV productions are increasingly being greenlit by independent producers. Westcott noted that there has been a shift in funding, where producers and distributors are covering more of the deficit. Coproduction is also becoming a trend as producers explore new models.

The global TV and streaming market shows tremendous growth potential, with revenues set to reach $700 billion in 2023. While the industry faces challenges such as cutbacks and changes in viewership habits, there is still a significant investment in programming and a shift towards independent production.